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Graybeard

Well-Known Member
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Well here is the data summary:
summary-20210823.jpg

1035 data points with both the GBTC and BTC prices
5433 GBTC prices based on volume of trades only
The last table shows my margin average GBTC price and bid discounts.

When I figure out what this means --I'll let you know :D
Crypto dances with Wall Street just need the missing link :D:D:D

dance party dancing GIF
 
Leadbit

Graybeard

Well-Known Member
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Data and its quantity really matters;
--look at the quantities of the datapoints of the matches between the GBTC and BTC tables
--this is exactly why I keep saying that your accuracy will depend on a decent sized sample of known quality.

fixed-spread-datapoints.jpg


Also, with Bitcoin, is the hodl and get rich quick stampedes to consider --that is rather intangible to me so far NEED MORE DATA :D
My Bitcoin-bot does the grunt work every 5 minutes. Fidelity (broker) produces a 1D (Daily) 1 min interval of the GBTC trades.

summary so far

summary-20210824.jpg
 
Last edited:

Graybeard

Well-Known Member
affiliate
08/25/2021
... and the numbers start forming a pattern maybe

hint: think of Datapoints as (landing page)hits and %Spread (whole number [rounded up (CEIL)]) as sales by the day.

The greatest number of daily hits (on the landing page) is also the highest % of sales conversions --the quality is essentially the same here
--this is the stock market and not an ad network or manipulated Google referrals SERPs
--the quality of the "hits" does not have a large variance such as internet traffic will at times

COUNT(*) in the first data table is the raw row entries (similar to:raw traffic) equivalent to 6,865 raw clicks
Landing page hits (conversions from ads) (30+551+115+59+313+65+11)=1144
1144/6865 =.1666 or 16.66%

So I have: 6,865 raw clicks->1144 LP cr -> and then the offer conversions (like a math story problem) I hated that shit when I was in grammar school. But so you might be able to relate the statistics
EXAMPLE-CPA.jpg

--I do this example :D With the 11 example(day2) there is no sale <1% on a small scale
SQL:
SELECT
COUNT(T1.lastsale) AS `Datapoints`
,  MAX(T1.lastsale) AS MAX
,MIN(T1.lastsale) AS MIN
, (((MAX(T1.lastsale)/MIN(T1.lastsale))-1)*100) AS `%Spread`
,"$ 51 TO 52 K" `BTC_RANGE`
   FROM GBTC T1
   RIGHT JOIN BTC T2 ON T1.epoch=T2.epoch
   WHERE  T1.date IS NOT NULL
   AND T2.BTC_Price BETWEEN 45000 AND 46000

/*slight rounding error had to prove that out */
mysql> select 35.700000*1.0521008403 as MAX;
+---------------------+
| MAX                 |
+---------------------+
| 37.5599999987100000 |
+---------------------+

%Spread is the volatility at the BTC price level

summary-20210825.jpg


What I think I am seeing is that; the GBTC Stonk Trust price spread has been lowered by the ready to bust Bitcoin price (maybe) TBD in days coming with more data.
 
Last edited:

Graybeard

Well-Known Member
affiliate
No point in making charts and projections when Bitcoins price is basically going sideways :p
Today's *report summary* GBTC is worth less and less in relation to BTC's decline (@_@)


summary-20210826.jpg
 

Graybeard

Well-Known Member
affiliate
Here's today's charts --all indications the BTC Price will be down.
The McDonald's arch is crossing the thin purple line --you know what that means --right :D



Longer View
summary-20210826.jpg


Sell short BTC PUTs ! This week's chart:

chart-WEEK-20210827.jpg
 

Graybeard

Well-Known Member
affiliate
Wrong again WTF Happened :mad:

1630077291134.png


$47,407.54 *1.022​
$48,450.51​

Close enough for hand grenades (as they say) :D
BTC price
timestamp
$48,272.06​
2021-Aug-27 11:05:00 AM​
$48,148.26​
2021-Aug-27 11:01:00 AM​
$48,181.93​
2021-Aug-27 10:58:00 AM​
$48,177.14​
2021-Aug-27 10:56:00 AM​
$48,183.84​
2021-Aug-27 10:55:00 AM​
$48,050.98​
2021-Aug-27 10:44:00 AM​
$48,086.61​
2021-Aug-27 10:42:00 AM​
$48,028.91​
2021-Aug-27 10:32:00 AM​
$47,980.41​
2021-Aug-27 10:30:00 AM​
$47,779.05​
2021-Aug-27 10:23:00 AM​
$47,828.57​
2021-Aug-27 10:19:00 AM​
$47,878.49​
2021-Aug-27 10:16:00 AM​
$47,581.33​
2021-Aug-27 10:10:00 AM​
$47,310.37​
2021-Aug-27 10:04:00 AM​
$47,285.28​
2021-Aug-27 9:57:00 AM​
$47,139.41​
2021-Aug-27 9:50:00 AM​
$47,139.41​
2021-Aug-27 9:50:00 AM​
$47,287.89​
2021-Aug-27 9:42:00 AM​
$47,235.06​
2021-Aug-27 9:35:00 AM​
$47,165.69​
2021-Aug-27 9:31:00 AM​
$47,165.69​
2021-Aug-27 9:30:00 AM​
$47,181.27​
2021-Aug-27 9:21:00 AM​
$47,144.29​
2021-Aug-27 9:16:00 AM​
$47,136.93​
2021-Aug-27 9:15:00 AM​
$47,175.37​
2021-Aug-27 9:12:00 AM​
$47,411.25​
2021-Aug-27 9:02:00 AM​
$47,488.32​
2021-Aug-27 8:58:00 AM​
$47,488.32​
2021-Aug-27 8:58:00 AM​
$47,390.51​
2021-Aug-27 8:46:00 AM​
$47,361.60​
2021-Aug-27 8:44:00 AM​
$47,390.12​
2021-Aug-27 8:42:00 AM​
$47,407.54​
2021-Aug-27 8:32:00 AM​
 
Last edited:

Graybeard

Well-Known Member
affiliate
*fixed an error in the volume counts in the summary today:
166 | >25000 <-|forgot to change
SQL:
 WHERE volume BETWEEN 25000 AND 100000
(fixed for next time) the 1 missing is one high volume anomaly TBD later >100,000


summary-20210827.jpg


Remember, think datapoints are like hits from a campaign
and %Spread is like the CR or result
Most are 3, one is 5 and the lower datapoint counts are outliers
The consistency of the 3 would matter.



1630103171299.png
 

Graybeard

Well-Known Member
affiliate
They all can't be Tuesday WTF --fixed :rolleyes:
Note the white and yellow bars --looks like they think they are buying into the dip ...

summary-20210830.jpg

However, the BTC price has been relatively flat this past week (for BTC anyway :D)
That’s not the case with Bitcoin. Bitcoin has gone from less than $12,000 a year ago, to almost $50,000 today, while Dogecoin, a crypto favorite of Tesla CEO Elon Musk, is up more than 8,000% over the past year. Those are big enough moves to wipe out any short seller. “There’s unlimited downside,” says Paulson. “It’s too volatile to short.”

Winter is coming?

money-btc.jpeg

According to recent SEC filings, Morgan Stanley owns over 6.5 million shares of GBTC worth over $240 million at the time of writing.

Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest funds currently own 9 million shares worth $350 million.


Morgan Stanley’s GBTC holdings are spread out across a series of funds, of which the Morgan Stanley Insight Fund holds close to 1 million shares..... ...What Else: The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust itself holds over $31.24 billion of Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) according to a recent update of its assets under management.

So, here is what I am seeing ... buy the wrong dip you could lose a fkn lot of money ...
 

Graybeard

Well-Known Member
affiliate
This was the beginning of the week:

1630770013686.png


This is through Thursday:

datapoints-volume-change.jpg

What is to be noted:
BTC was hovering in the $49K to $51 Range and the matching datapoints went up from 11 to 95, in the $50K-$51K range, with that sample size increase causing the %spread to jump from 0.67 to 3.77 or closer to the median or average. The same applies to your ratios of conversions from referrals or ads.
At some point you get a needed sample size to reach the median or see the conversions
. This is assuming that the offer and the vendor is doing his part :rolleyes:

This is the full summary when the ^RUT (Russel 2000 Stock Index is added) What I am trying to see here is if the price of GBTC is being influenced by the general stock market (that GBTC) is part of and not only by the BTC that is holds as the asset trust underlying the stock.

summary-2021rut-0902.jpg

Just conjecture and nothing conclusive yet -- Need more data !
 
Last edited:

Graybeard

Well-Known Member
affiliate
summary-09-07-2021.jpg

Summary is attached
Bitcoin bumped up then tanked :D

My own conclusion is that GBTC is smoke and mirrors.

Meantime I am up 14.11% on ADN stock in 5 trading days --so :D
</end> for now anyway
 
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