Will Any US Banks Crash Monday?

[Graybeard]

It's not only banks but stablecoin, payment processors and MTA (Money Transfer Agents) at risk.
You can look up your US FDIC banks' data here

BankFind Suite

Banks I do business with are solvent
Overall, bank delinquencies are down -10% Q4 2022



Precious metals may trigger Monday

I blame Powell

Good luck to the winners ...

 

[Graybeard]

More than 3,500 CEOs and founders representing some 220,000 workers have signed a petition appealing directly to Yellen and others to backstop depositors and warning that more than 100,000 jobs could be at risk.
Venture investors have advised startups to seek alternatives to gain short-term liquidity.

Working to address SVB collapse, but not looking at bailout, says Yellen

U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Sunday said she was working closely with banking regulators to respond to the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and protect depositors, but a major bailout was not being considered.

www.reuters.com

Money stone deposit at the Cave Bank?

 

[Graybeard]

Something new ...
Missed some nice speculative trades tho ...

 

[T J Tutor]

There is a head wind now for expanding regs targeting the smaller and less regulated local baking entities. This belly flop in California is the tip of the iceberg. There will be more with much smaller banks having the same issue while rates continue to rise. They'll get bailed out too. Here's the thing, the feds actually earn money by bailing them out. When the feds bailed them out nationwide in '08, we actually earned hundreds of millions back with the bailouts the feds provided.

 

[Graybeard]

Government bonds are the safest investments. They are easy to trade, that makes them attractive to banks.

When the FED raised the federal funds rate to high and too fast it results in a recession

Recent history:

Federal Funds Effective Rate

View data of the Effective Federal Funds Rate, or the interest rate depository institutions charge each other for overnight loans of funds.

fred.stlouisfed.org

SANTA CLARA, Calif., March 8, 2023 /PRNewswire/ -- SVB Financial Group ("SVB") (NASDAQ: SIVB), announced today that it intends to offer $1.25 billion of its common stock and $500 million of depositary shares

SIVB tries to raise capital by reducing shareholder equity with a $1.25 billion new share offer. stock markets see this and analysts and shareholder get wary and investigate.

Turns out February 28 principal officers sold stock --looks bad

https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/sivb/insider-activity

So

Silicon Valley Bank spooks Silicon Valley

Several top VC firms, including Coatue and Founders Fund, today suggesting pulling money out of SVB.

www.axios.com

SHTF time March 9

This file for Citi was still open I was looking to low ball bid a stock limit order--glad I didn't

Reason: Citigroup's fundamentals suck have for some time now

This is a combination of mismanagement and some chicanery IMHO --AND--

Jay Powell is the primary cause of the FED's poor decisions --apointed Chairman of the FED by Trump and reappointed by Biden. I don't think there is political blame here at all. We are sort of stuck here.

This will blow over if the FED stop raising rates for a while (maybe) a 2% annual inflation reate is not going to happen anytime soon. 3% to 4% may be a realistic inflation rates for the next 10 years.

 

[T J Tutor]

This will blow over if the FED stop raising rates for a while

EXACTLY! This is undoubtedly true, but it is a double edged sword. I'm not convinced the surges in inflation wouldn't ramp up again if this happened.

 

[T J Tutor]

Bonds are great when stocks are level, or reducing slowly over an extended time. If markets are on the rise, then bonds won't do all that much for a portfolio other than maybe provide some stability.

 

[Graybeard]

IDK, I earn constant interest/or income regardless of the market value if I don't cash them out.
This is the tracking on a group of medium-higher-risk corporate bonds as well as one international govt&corporate and MBS (mortgage backed securities) predominately.
Takes a few seconds to add to that file I run a .sql program at the close of the trading day

I have been down 28% in market value one day in August

But the dividends, distributions or interest have been a pretty steady 1.09% a month
I see a 10% possible market upside in a year or two.