It isn't a direct factor. If you have a catch-attention TLD you will get a higher Click/impression rate on google so you will rank higher in the long term.
I got a couple of site penalization in my whole IM life.
It's not so difficult to understand the reason: you are offering a low-quality site (duplicated content, popup/banner everywhere) or you are too aggressive with SEO using blackhat strategy (keyword stuffing, low-quality backlinks).
It depends on what's your main traffic source. If you are using popup you need the fastest hosting ever seen, so I think that normal cloud hosting plan doesn't work well for your purpose. If you are launching a SEO project a shared hosting could be fine.
If you want to track your traffic and...
The best traffic source is surely Google! With SEO, you can create an incredible project, I know it's the slowest traffic source to set up but you will get a continuous traffic flow for months! Don't forget the value you will get, a SEO project can be sold for 10X its monthly profit.
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