Please comment my calculations on ROI

[UncleScrooge]

Hi guys,

i spent some time with calculations for my (planned) campaign (sweeps) in LatAm. Many marketers recommend use popunders to start with as a source of traffic.

But currently i came with these pre-calculations:

• Cheapest CPM rate for lets say Brazil in PopAds is $0,1-04
• Many experienced marketers say that you need to get even at 0,1 CTR. And profitable after that.
• CR (clicks to actual leads, after going through both prelander and operator's landing) 10% (i thing this is way too optimistic, correct me if i am wrong)
• Payout is lets say $0,36 (what i got from one of the offers)
• Leads approve lets say 100% (which probably wont happen)

So we got CPM 0,1 CTR 0,1 CR 10%
Result?
-65% ROI
Only at CTR=0,3 i will get 5% ROI.

Even if i go for better traffic and better CR (CPM 0,7 CTR 1% and CR 20%) i will still receive 0% in ROI.
Hard to convince myself to start with these calculations, haha))
Cause to receive formidable (20-30%) ROI, i need to input unbelievably high (at least from my point of view) CTR or CR.

Question. I know the scheme is workable, so where is a mistake in my math? Help in form of answers or PM's is much appreciated!

 

[UncleScrooge]

Addition: since EPC for the offer is around 0,9 (i suppose they calculate both conversion from prelander and main lander) then CR is around 2,7%, not 10%
Then my calculations become even worse (link) )) Where's my mistake?
I know lone CPA marketers make money on popads (not huge money, but still around $100/day is doable for newbie) and i know offer is good and profitable. So there must be a mistake in one of my metrics)
Help appreciated!